# Data Timing and Forecasts

## How current is the published data? {#how-current-is-the-published-data}

!!!light Summary
Every price series runs through the most recent month. Preliminary model estimates cover the short interval before official statistics arrive, so the record stays near-current rather than stopping a quarter short.
!!!

The assessments are price-only, so a single clock governs them all. Official trade and market statistics reach national agencies one to three months after the period they describe. Rather than wait for that record to close, [preliminary](price-assessments.md#what-are-preliminary-prices) model estimates marked **(P)** stand in for the interval, and each is revised to a final value once the official data lands.

Every figure also carries a status label — Final, Preliminary **(P)**, or Forecast — so the basis of any single value is explicit at the point of reading.

!!!secondary
For what each status means, see [Data Status Labels](../publishing-and-revisions/status-labels.md); for why official statistics carry a reporting lag, see [Source Timing and Coverage](../data-to-assessments/source-timing.md).
!!!

## What role do preliminary estimates play? {#what-role-do-preliminary-estimates-play}

Preliminary estimates close the gap between the latest reported period and the point at which official statistics become available. Each is a regression estimate that addresses the one-to-three-month delay in the underlying data, flagged **(P)** wherever it appears.

An estimate is not a placeholder to be discarded. Its accuracy is monitored and refreshed every month, and once the confirming official data arrives, the preliminary value is revised to a final figure. The mechanics of how these estimates are built sit in [Price Assessments](price-assessments.md#what-are-preliminary-prices).

## How far ahead do the forecasts look? {#how-far-ahead-do-the-forecasts-look}

Selected commodities carry a short-term [forecast](price-assessments.md#how-are-price-forecasts-produced) extending about six months beyond the latest reported period. Each represents the most probable scenario as of the date it is produced, generated by mathematical models that combine the prices of related commodities, economic indices, and industry indicators. Forecasts are regenerated every month as new data arrives.

Which commodities carry a forecast is a coverage decision: a forecast is produced where the commodity's market relevance justifies one and the available price history is deep enough to sustain a reliable model. The assessment catalog identifies the forecast-carrying series through its "Forecast?" field.

Because a forecast is an outlook rather than a measured value, it is rounded to two significant figures, where historical and preliminary figures keep three. That difference in precision is itself a signal of how firm a given number is.