Data Timing and Forecasts
How current is the data in each report?
Summary
Timeliness varies by data type. Price and freight assessments run through the latest reported month and carry a six-month forecast, while energy-balance and market figures lag roughly four months behind the period they describe.
Each report combines two kinds of data that move on different clocks:
- Prices and freight — near-current. Preliminary model estimates bridge the short gap in official statistics, so these assessments extend to the most recent month and add a six-month forecast for selected series.
- Energy balances and market data — production, consumption, trade flows, self-sufficiency, and consumption-weighted metrics such as the average energy price rest on official energy and trade statistics, which arrive later. After collection, alignment, and validation, these figures reflect conditions about four months prior.
The split is deliberate: price signals stay timely for fast-moving market decisions, while balance and trade figures wait for verified official data rather than provisional estimates. The mechanics of each sit in Price Assessments and Energy Balance & Markets.
Why do energy balances lag prices and freight?
Summary
The two rest on different inputs — balances on lagged official statistics, prices and freight on preliminary models that fill the gap.
- Energy-balance and market assessments are built from official energy and foreign-trade statistics, which national agencies release one to three months after the period they cover. Formatting, alignment, and validation then follow, so the finished balance figures settle about four months behind the period. The same lag carries into metrics derived from them, such as the consumption-weighted average energy price.
- Price and freight assessments do not wait for the full official record. While official data is still pending, preliminary model estimates marked (P) stand in, so these series run through the latest month and are revised to final values once official data arrives.
Every figure's status — Final, Preliminary, or Forecast — is labeled in the report. See Data Status Labels for what each label means and Source Timing and Coverage for why official statistics carry a reporting lag.
How far ahead do the forecasts look?
Selected price and freight assessments include a short-term forecast extending about six months beyond the latest reported period. Each is generated by mathematical models combining the prices of related commodities, economic indices, and industry indicators, and represents the most probable scenario as of the date it is produced.
Energy-balance and market figures are not forecast — they are reported as historical values, with preliminary (P) estimates filling the most recent periods until official data confirms them.