Glossary: M-O
Definitions of Intratec methodology and product terms from M to O.
M
- M1 And M6 Forecasts
- The two forecast horizons highlighted in Intratec forecast-accuracy evaluation: M1, the forward-month forecast, is the most critical horizon for short-term decisions and is scored through the Model Performance Score; M6, the six-month-ahead forecast, is evaluated against the Constant Price Model through the Relative Performance Ratio.
- Manufacturing Cost-Based Price
- A price built from the operating costs of producing a commodity — raw materials, utilities, labor, maintenance, taxes, and fees; the cash cost is one example of this basis in Intratec price assessments.
- The percentage of GDP derived from manufacturing, reflecting industrial depth and demand for intermediate goods.
- Maritime Freight Component
- The average cost of ocean transport across major shipping categories (containerized, dry bulk, liquefied gases, and bulk light liquids).
- Mean Absolute Percentage Accuracy (MAPA)
- The complement of MAPE, calculated as 100% − MAPE; expresses how close model estimates came to consolidated prices — a MAPA of 95% means estimates deviated 5% on average. Higher values indicate better accuracy.
- Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
- The average deviation between model-estimated and consolidated prices, expressed as a percentage; because it is relative, it supports comparison across price levels, time periods, and datasets. One of the foundational metrics of Intratec model evaluation.
- Median Absolute Deviation (MAD)
- A robust dispersion measure used in transaction-price filtering to identify gross outliers without letting extreme trade records distort the benchmark for what counts as abnormal.
- Metric
- An observed value expressed in its absolute unit (for example, USD per hour or a percentage tax rate); the raw foundation of Industry Economics & Competitiveness scoring, before normalization into an indicator.
- Minimum-Volume Threshold
- A transaction-price filter that excludes trade records too small to represent the market level, using a threshold based on typical trade size for the commodity, region, or transport mode.
- Model Performance Score (MPS)
- Intratec's proprietary consolidation of model accuracy into a single zero-to-five-circles score: the Accuracy Indexes of the last 3, 6, and 12 months are combined with 5:3:2 weights, favoring recent performance. Reported for preliminary prices and forward-month forecasts. See how model reliability is measured.
N
- Naphtha
- A flammable liquid hydrocarbon used primarily as a petrochemical feedstock and industrial solvent; treated as a key oil product in Intratec energy assessments.
- Natural Gas
- A methane-rich fossil fuel used in heating, electricity generation, and petrochemicals manufacturing; processed to remove impurities and liquefied (LNG) for maritime transport.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGL)
- A mixture of hydrocarbons — ethane, propane, butane, and pentanes — recovered during crude oil or natural gas production.
- Netback
- A value at the loading terminal (an FOB basis), derived by subtracting maritime freight and insurance costs from a delivered destination price (a CIF basis).
- Netforward
- A value at the destination terminal (a CIF basis), derived by adding maritime freight and insurance costs to a loading-terminal price (an FOB basis).
- Normalization
- The adjustment stage that places market data on a common, comparable basis by correcting differences in location, data quality, quantity, specification, and timing before Intratec publishes an assessment.
- Nuclear Energy
- Energy generated through nuclear fission, in which uranium atoms split to release heat that produces steam to drive electricity-generating turbines; nuclear fuels include uranium, thorium, and plutonium.
O
- Official Trade Statistics
- Public customs and trade records reported by national authorities, used as the preferred source base for Intratec trade-based price assessments when the records are timely, suitable, and homogeneous.
- Oil
- Petroleum and all its derivatives; Intratec energy assessments treat crude oil and all oil products together as oil.
- Oil Products
- Refined fuels and derivatives obtained from crude oil, primarily used for energy, transportation, and industry; Intratec energy assessments categorize diesel, gasoline, fuel oil, naphtha, and kerosenes as oil products.
- Oil Products Domestic Supply
- The total availability of refined petroleum products within a country, calculated in the Energy Prices & Markets energy balance as demand plus energy transformation; it indicates how much of each oil product is available for domestic consumption.
- Operating Cash Cost
- The sum of operating variable costs and operating fixed costs in Commodity Production Costs reports, before depreciation, corporate overhead, and return on capital are added.
- Operating Fixed Costs
- Operating costs tied to plant capacity but not directly proportional to operating level, such as operating labor, supervision labor, maintenance, plant overhead, property taxes, and insurance.
- Operating Variable Costs
- Operating costs that vary with operating rate, especially raw materials and utilities in Commodity Production Costs reports.
- OSBL (Outside Battery Limits)
- Supporting infrastructure outside the core process unit, such as storage, utility facilities, auxiliary systems, and administrative/support buildings; in Commodity Production Costs reports, OSBL investment is part of plant cost.
- Other Feedstocks
- Refinery feedstocks (unfinished oils), synthetic crude oils — for example, from tar sands or coal liquefaction — and blending components for fuel enhancement.
- Other Oil Products
- Refined products outside the main fuel categories: lubricants, bitumen (asphalt), paraffin waxes, petroleum coke, and petrochemical feedstocks.
- Overall Competitiveness Score
- The equal-weighted average of the Base Pillar group score and the Industry-Specific pillar group score, representing a country's aggregate industrial competitiveness.
- Owner's Cost
- Expenses required to make an industrial plant operational even though they are not part of direct construction, such as initial charges, prepaid royalties, permits, studies, transport equipment, and owner's engineering.